As I sit down to analyze the Houston Rockets' upcoming NBA season, I can't help but feel a particular connection to this team's journey. Having followed their rebuild closely since James Harden's departure, I've witnessed both the growing pains and the promising flashes that make this franchise so fascinating. This season feels different though - there's a tangible sense that Houston might finally be turning the corner after three consecutive seasons finishing at the bottom of the Western Conference. Let me walk you through what I believe will be the five crucial factors determining whether the Rockets can shock the basketball world this year.
First and foremost, the development of Jalen Green will make or break their season. We saw glimpses of his explosive scoring ability last year when he dropped 41 points against Atlanta, but consistency remains the issue. If he can elevate his field goal percentage from last season's 42.6% to somewhere around 46%, while maintaining his 34% shooting from deep, we're talking about a potential All-Star caliber player. I'm particularly watching how he handles double teams - something that gave him trouble during his rookie campaign. The kid has undeniable talent, but talent alone doesn't win games in this league.
Then there's the Alperen Sengun factor. Watching this young center develop has been one of my favorite league narratives over the past two seasons. His footwork in the post reminds me of a young Kevin McHale, and his passing vision is exceptional for a big man. However, his defensive limitations concern me - the Rockets surrendered 112.8 points per 100 possessions with him on the court last season. If he can improve his rim protection and lateral movement, Houston might have their center of the future. I'm betting he averages at least 18 points and 9 rebounds this season if given consistent minutes.
The third factor revolves around their defensive identity, or lack thereof. Last season, Houston ranked 27th in defensive rating, allowing opponents to score 118.6 points per game. That's simply unacceptable for a team trying to establish itself. New additions like Dillon Brooks should help, but defense is about collective effort and system. I've noticed during preseason that they're switching more aggressively on screens, though they still get burned occasionally. This is where that quote about pride really resonates with me - "Pride na rin kasi ayoko na nababastos yung team namin." There's something powerful about playing with pride and not letting opponents walk all over you, something the Rockets desperately need to embrace.
Speaking of pride, the team chemistry aspect cannot be overstated. Watching their preseason games, I noticed significantly better ball movement compared to last season - they're averaging 24.3 assists per game in exhibition play versus last year's 22.8. The veterans they brought in seem to be having a positive influence on the young core. Fred VanVleet in particular appears to be taking leadership seriously, which is crucial for a team that looked disconnected at times last year. I've always believed that talent wins games, but chemistry wins championships, and Houston needs to build that foundation now rather than later.
Finally, coaching and system implementation under Ime Udoka will be critical. His defensive-minded approach should help address their weaknesses, but I'm curious how he'll manage the development of their young players while implementing winning habits. The offense can't just be isolation-heavy like we saw too often last season - they need more movement and smarter shot selection. If Udoka can get this team to buy into his system completely, I wouldn't be surprised to see them win 35-40 games and potentially challenge for a play-in spot. That might sound optimistic, but I've seen crazier things happen in this league.
Ultimately, the Rockets' season hinges on whether their young players take the next step while buying into a team-first mentality. The pieces are there - now it's about putting them together properly. As someone who's followed this team through thick and thin, I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll see meaningful progress this year. They might not be championship contenders yet, but the days of being the league's doormat should be coming to an end.